Sunday, December 16, 2007

More remedies to shore up the market

From the passage, Bank co-ops keep US afloat, and analysis, TAF - The Fed Is Not Tone-Challenged After All, I have read that deposit institutions has increasingly tapped funds from Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs). ...FHLB loans helped depository institutions ramp up their acquisition of mortgages by almost $190bn, annualised to $312bn. This - along with record purchases of mortgages by better-known government sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - offset a large part of the $512bn annualised decline in mortgage purchases by special investment vehicles (SIVs) conduits and other issuers of asset-backed securities at the epicentre of the crisis.... ...Like Fannie and Freddie, the FHLBs have no formal state guarantees but the market believes the US government would step in if the system got into trouble, allowing the FHLBs to raise funds at very low rates against an AAA credit rating, despite being very highly leveraged....Actually the FHLBs stepping in the recent lending is a move to provide funding to the mortgage originators. Otherwise the demand of property will be even more retarded up on the halt of the wheel of the liquidity flow.
Beside of additional help from FHLBs to alleviate the dry-up of the liquidity to the money market, private sectors also move their off-balance sheet vehicle back to their balance, say, Citigroup($49 bn), Société Générale($4.3 bn), Rabobank($7.6bn), Standard Chartered($1.7 bn) and HSBC($45 bn). These moves largely reduce the demands of fund from the asset-backed commercial paper market in the mean time. This seems to solve temporarily the time mis-match of the source of funding and the investment, (from short-term paper to long-term deposit). However, the determining factor for the institutions to solve the current turmoil is the need for their holdings to find its true value when they mature. If everything is not going fine, more write-offs would be followed upon the realization of their value. Likely, there will be a huge need for capital raising for those involved banks and financial institutions, in order to maintain the capital adequacy ratio. UBS and Citigroup offerings for selling shares at a bargain have been criticized by too generous. But maybe they are the 2 institutions which can raise the valuable capital in the beginning of the current crisis before there will be too many supply of shares from other institutions.

Sunday, December 9, 2007

A look at the recent turmoil

Since the end of November, the liquidity in interbank markets in United States, Euro area, Japan and United Kingdom has dried up. Specifically, we can look at the 1 month LIBOR across the markets, which supposedly close to the policy rate, traded a premium over the policy rate. Additionaly, the TED spreads, the premium of LIBOR over the risk-free treasury rate have seen never which have not been seen since 1987. Both suggest that the capital flight to the relative safe instruments rather than seeking to park into the generally believed safe heaven -- interbank market.
The phenomena across different continents purpose that the spillover of credit risk (no longer a mere subprime problem) has a larger scale than Aug's one. Further shrink in the outstanding of asset-backed commercial paper have dropped to USD 801.2 bn by more than 32% from the all time high in July. It is a bank run in the shadow banking in US.
We have seen the similar situation happening across the Atlantic with queues lining up outside Northern Rock to take back the deposits. The Bank of England has shored up the faltering bank by injecting capital and guarantees that it is safe to place your money over there. While in US, we still see no bailout with public fund of this shadow market but a proposed Super SIV fund orchestrated by US Treasury of States, Paulson, to inject liquidity back into this area using funds from Bank of America, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase(with Blackrock as the manager of the fund). Finally, if it is an illiquid issue, it will be a very profitable deal for the Wallstreet guys. But if it is an insolvent issue, it will be a lingering downward adjustment process for the US.